Mortgage rates have shaped American homeownership for over five decades — swinging from the crushing 18%+ peaks of the early 1980s to the historic lows near 2.65% during the COVID-19 pandemic, and back up again. Understanding this history helps you put today’s rates in context and make smarter decisions about buying, holding, or refinancing your home loan.
The data below tracks the average annual 30-year fixed mortgage rate from 1971 to 2025, sourced from Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) — the longest-running and most widely cited weekly mortgage rate series in the United States. Use our Mortgage Calculator to see exactly what today’s rates mean for your monthly payment.
Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate by Year (1971–2025)
| Year | Avg Rate | Year | Avg Rate | Year | Avg Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1971 | 7.33% | 1990 | 10.13% | 2009 | 5.04% |
| 1972 | 7.38% | 1991 | 9.25% | 2010 | 4.69% |
| 1973 | 8.04% | 1992 | 8.39% | 2011 | 4.45% |
| 1974 | 9.19% | 1993 | 7.31% | 2012 | 3.66% |
| 1975 | 9.05% | 1994 | 8.38% | 2013 | 3.98% |
| 1976 | 8.87% | 1995 | 7.93% | 2014 | 4.17% |
| 1977 | 8.85% | 1996 | 7.81% | 2015 | 3.85% |
| 1978 | 9.64% | 1997 | 7.60% | 2016 | 3.65% |
| 1979 | 11.20% | 1998 | 6.94% | 2017 | 3.99% |
| 1980 | 13.74% | 1999 | 7.44% | 2018 | 4.54% |
| 1981 | 16.63% 🔺 Peak | 2000 | 8.05% | 2019 | 3.94% |
| 1982 | 16.04% | 2001 | 6.97% | 2020 | 3.11% |
| 1983 | 13.24% | 2002 | 6.54% | 2021 | 2.96% 🔻 Historic Low |
| 1984 | 13.88% | 2003 | 5.83% | 2022 | 5.34% |
| 1985 | 12.43% | 2004 | 5.84% | 2023 | 6.81% |
| 1986 | 10.19% | 2005 | 5.87% | 2024 | 6.72% |
| 1987 | 10.21% | 2006 | 6.41% | 2025 | ~6.80% (current) |
| 1988 | 10.34% | 2007 | 6.34% | ||
| 1989 | 10.32% | 2008 | 6.03% |
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS). Annual averages based on weekly 30-year fixed-rate data. 2025 figure reflects current rate environment as of Q2 2025.
What Affects Mortgage Rates?
Mortgage rates don’t move in a vacuum — they’re driven by a complex interplay of economic forces. Understanding these drivers helps you time your purchase or refinance more strategically.
The Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy: The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates directly, but its federal funds rate target heavily influences them. When the Fed raises rates to fight inflation (as it did aggressively in 2022–2023), mortgage rates rise. When it cuts rates to stimulate the economy, mortgage rates tend to fall. The 1981 peak — when rates hit 18.63% in a single week — was a direct result of the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes under Chairman Paul Volcker to crush double-digit inflation.
10-Year Treasury Yields: Mortgage rates track the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield more closely than any other benchmark. When investors see risk in the economy and flee to safe government bonds, yields drop — and mortgage rates tend to follow. The 2020–2021 lows (under 3%) were largely driven by historic Treasury yield compression during the COVID-19 stimulus era.
Inflation: Lenders demand higher rates when inflation is elevated, to ensure the real value of their returns isn’t eroded. The inflation spike of 2021–2023 was the primary driver of the fastest mortgage rate increase in modern history — rates more than doubled from under 3% in early 2022 to nearly 8% by late 2023.
Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Demand: Most mortgages are bundled into MBS and sold on the secondary market. When investor demand for MBS is high (as during Fed quantitative easing), rates fall. When the Fed reduces its MBS portfolio (quantitative tightening), rates rise.
Your Credit Profile: The rates above are averages — your actual rate depends heavily on your credit score, down payment, loan type, and lender. Borrowers with 760+ credit scores routinely receive rates 0.5–1.0% lower than those with scores in the 620–680 range. Use our Mortgage Calculator to model how different rates affect your payment.
Are Mortgage Rates Going Down in 2025?
As of 2025, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is hovering around 6.7–6.9%, down from the October 2023 peak near 7.79% but still well above the pandemic-era lows. The trajectory for the rest of 2025 depends on several key variables:
Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: After holding rates steady at a 23-year high through much of 2024, the Fed began cutting in late 2024. However, mortgage rates didn’t fall as dramatically as many expected, because markets had already priced in modest cuts. Further cuts in 2025 may push rates modestly lower — but a return to 3% is not expected this decade.
Inflation Trajectory: If inflation continues its gradual decline toward the Fed’s 2% target, long-term rates — and thus mortgage rates — have room to fall. But any resurgence in inflation would likely push rates higher again.
Expert Forecasts for 2025: Major forecasters including Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and NAR generally project 30-year fixed rates to average 6.3%–6.8% in 2025 — meaningful improvement from 2023 peaks, but still elevated by historical standards. A drop below 6% would require either a significant recession or aggressive Fed easing not currently projected.
If you’re wondering whether to buy now or wait for lower rates, remember: you marry the house, you date the rate. If you find the right home, you can always refinance later when rates drop.
How to Get the Lowest Mortgage Rate
You can’t control macro rate environments, but you can take concrete steps to qualify for the best rate available to you.
1. Maximize Your Credit Score: A score of 760+ puts you in the best-rate tier with virtually every lender. Pay down revolving balances, dispute any errors on your credit report, and avoid opening new accounts in the 6–12 months before applying.
2. Increase Your Down Payment: A 20% down payment eliminates PMI and signals lower risk to lenders, which can improve your rate. Even going from 5% to 10% down can make a meaningful difference.
3. Shop Multiple Lenders: Studies show that getting just two rate quotes saves borrowers an average of $1,500 over the life of a loan — and getting five quotes saves over $3,000. Don’t settle for the first offer.
4. Consider Points: If you plan to stay in the home long-term, paying discount points upfront to buy down your rate can save thousands over the life of the loan. Use our Mortgage Calculator to calculate your break-even point.
5. Lock Your Rate: Once you find a favorable rate, lock it in immediately — especially in volatile markets. Rate locks typically last 30–60 days and protect you from increases while your loan closes.
6. Refinance When Rates Drop: If you bought at a higher rate, watch for opportunities to refinance. The general rule of thumb: refinancing makes sense if you can reduce your rate by at least 0.75–1.0% and plan to stay in the home long enough to break even on closing costs. Our Refinancing Calculator will do the math for you.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What was the highest mortgage rate in history?
The highest weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate on record was 18.63%, reached in October 1981. This peak was the result of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary tightening under Chairman Paul Volcker to combat double-digit inflation. The annual average for 1981 was 16.63%.
Q: What was the lowest mortgage rate in history?
The lowest weekly 30-year fixed rate on record was 2.65%, reached in January 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Federal Reserve’s near-zero interest rate policy and massive quantitative easing program drove rates to historic lows. The annual average for 2021 was 2.96%.
Q: What is the average 30-year mortgage rate in 2025?
As of Q2 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is approximately 6.7–6.9%, according to Freddie Mac’s PMMS. This is significantly below the October 2023 peak of ~7.79% but well above the pandemic-era lows. Most forecasters expect rates to remain in the 6–7% range through 2025.
Q: Will mortgage rates go down in 2025?
Most forecasters project modest rate declines in 2025, with the 30-year fixed averaging 6.3%–6.8% for the year. A return to sub-5% rates would require either a significant economic recession or aggressive Fed policy easing not currently anticipated by markets. Gradual improvement is more likely than dramatic decline.
Q: What is a good mortgage rate?
“Good” is relative to the prevailing market environment. In the context of 2025 rates around 6.7–6.9%, securing a rate at or below 6.5% would be considered favorable. Historically, rates below 5% (as seen from 2010–2022) were exceptional. Focus less on hitting a specific number and more on qualifying for the best rate your financial profile allows — then refinance if rates improve significantly.
Our sources
Historical average rates are based on Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the standard long-run series for U.S. mortgage rates. Estimate a payment with the Mortgage Calculator.
Historical data; not a forecast. Not financial advice.